Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities.

Aim: Climate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes. Location: Andes. Taxon: Plants. Methods: We (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models. Results: Future climatic changes (2040-2070) are projected to be stronger at high-elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Under this worst-case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%-23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high-elevation areas, a lack of high-resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling. Main conclusions: Climate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region-wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes.

Think globally, measure locally: The MIREN standardized protocol for monitoring plant species distributions along elevation gradients.

Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need for a standardized monitoring strategy that can be applied across mountain regions to assess distribution changes and community turnover of native and non-native plant species over space and time. Here, we present a conceptually intuitive and standardized protocol developed by the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) to systematically quantify global patterns of native and non-native species distributions along elevation gradients and shifts arising from interactive effects of climate change and human disturbance. Usually repeated every five years, surveys consist of 20 sample sites located at equal elevation increments along three replicate roads per sampling region. At each site, three plots extend from the side of a mountain road into surrounding natural vegetation. The protocol has been successfully used in 18 regions worldwide from 2007 to present. Analyses of one point in time already generated some salient results, and revealed region-specific elevational patterns of native plant species richness, but a globally consistent elevational decline in non-native species richness. Non-native plants were also more abundant directly adjacent to road edges, suggesting that disturbed roadsides serve as a vector for invasions into mountains. From the upcoming analyses of time series, even more exciting results can be expected, especially about range shifts. Implementing the protocol in more mountain regions globally would help to generate a more complete picture of how global change alters species distributions. This would inform conservation policy in mountain ecosystems, where some conservation policies remain poorly implemented.

Large herbivores facilitate a dominant grassland forb via multiple indirect effects.

While large herbivores are critically important components of terrestrial ecosystems and can have pronounced top-down effects on plants, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms driving these effects remains incomplete. Large herbivores can alter plant growth, reproduction, and abundance through direct effects (predominantly consumption) and through indirect effects via altered interactions with abiotic factors and other species. We know considerably less about these indirect effects than the direct effects. Here, we integrate medium- and small-scale field experiments to investigate how a large vertebrate herbivore, cattle (Bos taurus), affects the aboveground biomass of a dominant forb species, Artemisia scoparia, via diverse direct and indirect pathways in a temperate grassland in northeast China. Although cattle consumed this forb, its biomass increased significantly in response to grazing, due to multiple indirect positive effects that outweighed the direct negative effects of consumption. Cattle preferentially consumed the competing grass Leymus chinensis, and altered Artemisia microhabitats by reducing total plant cover and litter biomass and by increasing the abundance of co-occurring ant species (e.g., Formica spp. and Lasius spp.). This led to additional indirect positive effects on A. scoparia likely due to (1) increased light availability in understory layers and other limiting resources (e.g., soil nutrients and moisture) caused by removal of competitors and plant litter at the soil surface and (2) the changes in resource availability (e.g., soil nutrients and moisture) associated with ant colonies. Our results show that large herbivores can affect plant growth not only via direct consumption, but also via multiple indirect effects. Focusing on the causes and consequences of herbivore-induced indirect effects will not only help us to better understand the influence of these animals in ecological systems, but will also lead to more effective land management and conservation practices in the regions they inhabit.

Global maps of soil temperature.

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

Going off trails: How dispersed visitor use affects alpine vegetation.

Mountain protected areas provide a range of ecosystem services including conserving biodiversity, while often providing recreation and tourism opportunities. Unfortunately, tourists and pack animals used to transport equipment can damage sensitive alpine vegetation particularly when they leave trails. This study assessed the impacts of disturbance from off trail use on alpine vegetation in a popular park in the Andes. The effect of different levels of disturbance as well as abiotic factors on alpine steppe vegetation was assessed using generalized linear models and ordinations in 91 plots (20 m2) in the popular Horcones Valley that is used to access remote areas in Aconcagua Provincial Park in Argentina. Disturbance off trails resulted in declines in the cover of native plants, including the endemic shrub Adesmia aegiceras but increases in the cover of herbs including the non-native Convolvulus arvensis. Increased disturbance was associated with shifts from stress tolerant species to ruderal plants characterized by more acquisitive traits, including shorter plants with greater Specific Leaf Area. The research demonstrates the severity of impacts from off trail trampling including how trampling favours some species with specific traits over others and why it is important to limit off track use in areas of high conservation value.

Proximity to forest edge does not affect crop production despite pollen limitation.

A decline in pollination function has been linked to agriculture expansion and intensification. In northwest Argentina, pollinator visits to grapefruit, a self-compatible but pollinator-dependent crop, decline by approximately 50% at 1km from forest edges. We evaluated whether this decrease in visitation also reduces the pollination service in this crop. We analysed the quantity and quality of pollen deposited on stigmas, and associated limitation of fruit production at increasing distances (edge: 10, 100, 500 and 1000m) from the remnants of Yungas forest. We also examined the quantitative and qualitative efficiency of honeybees as pollen vectors. Pollen receipt and pollen tubes in styles decreased with increasing distance from forest edge; however, this decline did not affect fruit production. Supplementation of natural pollen with self- and cross-pollen revealed that both pollen quantity and quality limited fruit production. Despite pollen limitation, honeybees cannot raise fruit production because they often do not deposit sufficient high-quality pollen per visit to elicit fruit development. However, declines in visitation frequency well below seven visits during a flower's lifespan could decrease production beyond current yields. In this context, the preservation of forest remnants, which act as pollinator sources, could contribute to resilience in crop production. Like wild plants, pollen limitation of the yield among animal-pollinated crops may be common and indicative not only of pollinator scarcity, but also of poor pollination quality, whereby pollinator efficiency, rather than just abundance, can play a broader role than previously appreciated.